Mortgage Rates in 2026: A Year for Smart Planning (Not Perfect Forecasting)
If the last few years have proven anything, it’s that mortgage rates don’t behave in tidy, predictable patterns.
Instead of trying to guess exactly what rates will do next, 2026 is looking like a year where the best approach is choosing a mortgage plan that works even if rates shift.
Here are a few trends I expect we’ll see this year.
Variable rates are back in the conversation
For a long stretch, variable mortgages were priced higher than fixed options, which is not the norm. As that gap has shifted, we’re seeing more homeowners and buyers explore variable again.
For the right person, a variable mortgage can offer:
a lower starting rate
more flexibility
an option that fits shorter-term plans
That said, it’s not the best fit for everyone. Comfort with rate changes and payment fluctuations matters just as much as the rate itself.
A more stable year (compared to the chaos we’ve had)
The past cycle has been intense: aggressive rate hikes, a long pause, and then cuts.
In 2026, we may still see movement, but most forecasts point toward a calmer pace than what borrowers experienced in 2022–2024. For many people, that stability alone will be a welcome change.
Renewals will be the biggest stress point
The reality for many Canadians renewing this year is that they’re coming out of extremely low rates and moving into today’s higher range.
This is why the renewal conversation often comes down to one key question:
What matters more right now, the lowest rate, or the most manageable payment?
Those two things don’t always line up, especially if the amortization and structure aren’t considered.
Don’t assume big rate drops are still coming
Mortgage rates have already fallen meaningfully from their peak, and while additional decreases are possible, it’s more realistic to expect smaller shifts from here unless the economic picture changes dramatically.
Waiting for the “perfect moment” can backfire, the better approach is to build a mortgage strategy that works now, with flexibility if conditions change later.
Final thought
In 2026, the best mortgage decision usually isn’t about chasing the lowest rate, it’s about choosing the option that supports your cash flow, protects your flexibility, and fits your life plans.
