Keep up with changes in the market and economy

Economic Update

🏡 October 10 Market Update

Canada’s job market bounced back in September with over 60,000 new jobs, far more than expected. Full-time positions surged, manufacturing picked up, and wages held steady. Here’s what that means for the economy, mortgage rates, and what homebuyers and homeowners should keep in mind this fall.

Canada’s Job Numbers Surprise to the Upside

Canada’s labour market showed fresh strength in September, adding 60,400 new jobs, well above the 5,000 that economists were expecting. Even better, the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% instead of rising as many had predicted.

Most of the growth came from full-time jobs, which jumped by more than 106,000, while part-time work dropped by about 45,000, likely reflecting students heading back to school. Manufacturing was a standout performer, adding roughly 28,000 new jobs (a 1.5% increase for the sector). It’s only the third time in three years that Canada has seen full-time job creation of over 100,000 in a single month.

The participation rate, the percentage of people working or looking for work, ticked up to 65.2%, and wage growth held steady at 3.6%. That balance suggests workers are earning more, but not at a pace that would fuel new inflation pressures.

All in all, this is a solid report that shows Canada’s job market is holding up surprisingly well despite higher interest rates.

What This Means for Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada recently began trimming its key rate to help cool borrowing costs. Before the jobs report, markets were widely expecting another rate cut later this month. However, stronger employment numbers may give the Bank reason to pause and see how the economy evolves.

For now, fixed mortgage rates remain fairly stable, while variable rates could still drift lower if the Bank of Canada decides to continue cutting gradually later this year. Either way, the worst of the rate-hike cycle appears to be behind us, and the next phase is about moderation and stability.

A Look Beyond Canada

Globally, financial markets have been riding a wave of mixed signals. Optimism around artificial intelligence and tech growth pushed North American stock markets higher, while bond yields ticked up slightly as investors shifted their money into equities.

In Washington, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meeting with President Trump brought cautious optimism on trade. No deal was announced, but the tone between both countries seemed more cooperative, which helped calm inflation worries.

Meanwhile, gold prices hit an all-time high of $4,000 an ounce, as investors continued to seek safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty and persistent deficits.

What It Means for Homeowners and Buyers

For homeowners, this mix of news is mostly positive. A steady job market supports confidence, and cooling inflation helps keep borrowing costs from climbing. While mortgage rates remain higher than what we saw a few years ago, the outlook points toward slow and steady improvement.

If your mortgage is renewing in the next 6–12 months, now is the time to start reviewing your options. Early planning can help secure a competitive rate and avoid surprises later. And if you’re looking to buy, stable job growth and easing inflation are good signs — just remember to budget carefully and build in a little flexibility for future rate changes.

The Bottom Line

Canada’s September jobs rebound is encouraging. The economy isn’t booming, but it’s showing resilience, and that gives the Bank of Canada more confidence to move carefully.

For homeowners and buyers, this means a steadier, more predictable environment ahead. Rates may not fall quickly, but the pressure for sharp increases has eased, and stability is returning to the housing market.